Stimulus & Supply Constraints at Record Highs

Safeguarding the Soul

Posted on Opinions

The sugar high of monetary stimulus has become ever sweeter as inflation has surged. Real Fed Funds rates have collapsed to a record low providing further stimulus to a robust economy already dealing with supply constraints. This is a policy stance that risks undermining their hard-won inflation credibility. For a central banker losing that credibility […]

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The Anatomy of Financial Repression

A Burst of Freedom

Posted on Opinions

Real interest rates are too low and if you believe this then you believe equity multiples are too high. On the eve of an accelerated taper by the Fed, it makes sense to take a deeper dive into recent history to see just how low rates really are relative to where they should be. We can […]

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What to do about TINA

Posted on Opinions

TINA, the acronym for “there is no alternative” to buying equities has been a fixture of the financial landscape for some time as evidenced by the chart showing the real US 10Y yield (deflated by CPI) less the dividend yield on the S&P 500. The same picture can be demonstrated using most fixed income assets, […]

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