Market expectations for Fed rate hikes in mid-2022 look misplaced unless this chart begins to change to the upside. Despite 5y breakeven inflation at record highs and constant chatter on underlying inflation risks by analysts and in the media (which we are sympathetic to), the underlying reality is that long term inflation expectations that have […]

The velocity of money gives us a useful way to view inflation risks that have thus far been largely dispersed across sectors suffering supply shocks stemming from post pandemic economic re-openings. The tapering announcement by the FOMC yesterday included a statement by Powell that inflation risks are likely to be transitory. However, if supply chain […]