Why Robust Pricing Power Can Persist

Posted on Opinions

The attached chart supports the view that demand will remain strong despite surging energy prices and that business pricing power will also remain firm for the foreseeable future. That bodes well for operating leverage despite rising input costs from both labor and goods owing to well documented supply chain issues and higher commodity prices.  The […]

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A Not So Crazy Inflation Forecast

Posted on Opinions

Recent forecasts by the Fed’s staff in Washington has received much press of late in their expectations for inflation to decelerate back towards 2% in 2022. That feels like a heroic statement, almost foolish. However, it is not and as a former Fed economist, I have utmost respect for their forecasting ability. The key point, however, […]

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Mind The Rate Gap

Posted on Opinions

We expect the Fed to begin its long-awaited tapering process at the November FOMC meeting. When the central bank is buying $120B in securities a month a reduction to $105B or $110B may not appear to be significant. It is, however, a critical first step to tighter financial conditions. Fed Chair Powell suggests the full “taper” […]

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Tip Toeing Past Peak Everything

Posted on Perspectives

•  Equity markets have begun to feel the weight of an historic run-up in prices. The transition to a post “peak everything” regime makes for a more challenging environment for fixed income and equities. •  The global economic recovery is on solid ground. However, as growth expectations are scaled back amid high inflation we hear […]

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