The Fed Pivot – from Swagger to Stagger Three themes that took root a year ago remain familiar; sluggish global trade exacerbated by China-US trade tensions, evidence of a maturing economic cycle in North America and beyond, and stock market volatility flowing on the Trump news cycle and spiking on unheralded neck wrenching tweets. Noting […]

Windfall to bondholders Interest rates globally have collapsed. US 10-year government bonds now yield 2.0%, down from 2.5% at the end of Q1 2019. Incredulously, 10-year Greek government bonds are also now yielding just 2%, despite having credit ratings that are of speculative grade. These yields look meagre until alternatives are considered. Following the US […]

Is discretion the better part of valour? Often. But not always when it comes to the financial markets. Let’s take a quick tour of the development of the US interest rate markets. It sheds light on the stock market outlook. The chart above is surprisingly insightful. It shows interest rate expectations at three points of […]

Financial markets are tight. Company valuations seem rather full. Several short-term market trends, investing opportunities and pitfalls, revolve around who gets or loses their “free (or discounted) rides”. First let’s pre-load what we mean. In a nutshell, shareholders enjoy free rides when costs that could reasonably accrue to a company, are borne by others. Changes […]